“What was surprising to me was that even in the most benign scenario, the drought effects are quite severe,” said Tom Oliver, the lead author of the new study, published in the journal Nature Climate Change, and an ecologist at the Center for Ecology and Hydrology.
The study relies on data from 129 sites at which 28 butterfly species are tracked in the UK Butterfly Monitoring Scheme, along with historical weather data and climate model predictions from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project.
The species that researchers identified as vulnerable are the ringlet, the speckled wood, the large skipper, the large white, the small white and the green-veined white butterfly. All are common now.
By 2050, the species will not face total extinction. But populations in dry areas, particularly in southeast England, may disappear, Dr. Oliver said.
To counter the effects of climate change, butterflies need havens where they can thrive.
“We’re essentially already locked into a significant degree of climate warming,” Dr. Oliver said. “Even if we are able to reduce this, we still need to actually improve the quality of our habitats.”
Source: The New York Times | 10 August 2015
