A remarkable study published last week in the highly regarded scientific journal Nature detailed a new method for predicting specific dates for the onset of climate change for any location on the planet.
The study (hereafter known as the “Mora study” after first author Dr. Camilo Mora) has made waves around the world since for the first time it puts specific dates on “climate departure” for cities and regions. The implications of the study for Indonesia are immediately apparent.
The startling findings indicate that permanent alteration of climate is just around the corner for the expansive archipelago; the study pegs 2029 as the year for radical climate departure for Jakarta, and as early as 2020 for Manokwari in Papua, whereas the global average is 2047.
What this means is that the random, stochastic events, like increased flooding and extended drought conditions that now wreak havoc from time to time on the Indonesian landscape, economy and people, will become the new normal.
In other words, we will soon move from conditions of periodic perturbation to permanent and irreversible change. The study accounts for only one indicator, however — rising temperature — and acknowledges that additional social and economic factors could result in further unexpected pressures.
We see this startling new study not only as a call for greater urgency in preparing for climate change in Indonesia, but also as an opportunity for the country to move forward in providing global leadership in addressing these challenges.
Read more: Indonesia in 2028: Permanent and Irreversible Climate Change