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Knowledge Resources

Knowledge Resources

Climate change is happening now. Evidences being seen support the fact that the change cannot simply be explained by natural variation. The most recent scientific assessments have confirmed that this warming of the climate system since the mid-20th century is most likely to be due to human activities; and thus, is due to the observed increase in greenhouse gas concentrations from human activities, such as the burning of fossil fuels and land use change. Current warming has increasingly posed quite considerable challenges to man and the environment, and will continue to do so in the future. Presently, some autonomous adaptation is taking place, but we need to consider a more pro-active adaptation planning in order to ensure sustainable development.

What does it take to ensure that adaptation planning has a scientific basis? Firstly, we need to be able to investigate the potential consequences of anthropogenic or human induced climate change and to do this, a plausible future climate based on a reliable and accurate baseline (or present) climate must be constructed. This is what climate scientists call a climate change scenario. It is a projection of the response of the climate system to future emissions or concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols, and is simulated using climate models. Essentially, it describes possible future changes in climate variables (such as temperatures, rainfall, storminess, winds, etc.) based on baseline climatic conditions.

The climate change scenarios outputs (projections) are an important step forward in improving our understanding of our complex climate, particularly in the future. These show how our local climate could change dramatically should the global community fail to act towards effectively reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

ClimateChange

Source: PAG ASA

Knowledge Resources

Disaster risk reduction efforts traditionally focus on long-term preventative measures or post-disaster response. Outside of these, there are many short-term actions, such as evacuation, that can be implemented in the period of time between a warning and a potential disaster to reduce the risk of impacts. However, this precious window of opportunity is regularly overlooked in the case of climate and weather forecasts, which can indicate heightened risk of disaster but are rarely used to initiate preventative action. Barriers range from the protracted debate over the best strategy for intervention to the inherent uncomfortableness on the part of donors to invest in a situation that will likely arise but is not certain. In general, it is unclear what levels of forecast probability and magnitude are “worth” reacting to. Here, we propose a novel forecast-based financing system to automatically trigger action based on climate forecasts or observations. The system matches threshold forecast probabilities with appropriate actions, disburses required funding when threshold forecasts are issued, and develops standard operating procedures that contain the mandate to act when these threshold forecasts are issued.We detail the methods that can be used to establish such a system, and provide illustrations from several pilot cases. Ultimately, such a system can be scaled up in disaster-prone areas worldwide to improve effectiveness at reducing the risk of disaster.

Read more here.

Knowledge Resources

625371-wfp286638Key Messages

  • Livelihoods in Lao PDR are diverse owing to a complex topography and the flows of the Mekong River basin. Over 40 unique livelihood groups exist in the country, each with a unique resilience profile.

  • The livelihoods with greatest climate resilience are those with sufficient access to financial capital (and wealth) and land, those which are highly diversified, and those which do not rely on rainfed agriculture. Focusing on activities linked to these characteristics will enhance community resilience.

  • Generally, livelihoods dependent on highland paddy are among the least resilient in part due to the rugged terrain and remoteness which limits access to land and additional livelihood activities. Communities dependent on highland paddy are also among the most severely affected by climate -related risks.

Source: World Food Programme | Download pdf here

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